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中信建投周金涛:本轮房价大底可能在2020年后出现

中国证券报
中信建投首席经济学家周金涛认为,中国房地产上行期可能已接近极限。中国房地产周期在2014年和2016年可能形成了双头顶部,未来三年或步入下行期。消化房地产库存、促进房地产业持续发展是对房地产作为支柱产业的再次确认,要通过城镇化来消除对供给侧改革的制约。

  本轮中周期尚未触底

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  周金涛:从2016年初以来,除了金融领域的“资产荒”之外,实体经济的固定资产投资也在不断下滑,这说明经济确实运行到了需要调整的阶段,投 资收益率的下降是不可逆转的。2017年到2019年,全球的中周期都是下降期,不独中国如此,这是周期的必然规律。但此时经济体特别是金融体系内部存在 着大量的过剩流动性,这些过剩流动性在这个阶段的必然投资导向是脱虚向实,即寻求可以抵御货币贬值的资产,所以不单单是房地产,诸如黄金价格的上涨,商品 价格的反弹,都是这种脱虚向实的表现。但是这种表现是经济周期运动即将进入衰退的前兆。而按照我们对康波中房地产(18.930, 0.18, 0.96%)周期运动规律的认识,以中国和美国为代表的主要经济体所面临的房地产周期的调整是大级别的,且带有必然性。所以认清资产价格的表现所代表的逻辑以及其所处的周期阶段,是做任何投资的前提。

  房地产周期或步入下行期

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  城镇化仍有发展空间
中国证券报:如果风险点到来,那么应如何平滑房地产周期下行对经济的负面影响?

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